Tag: Secure World Foundation

China, Russia and the New Space Race

Article by James Stavridis                                           April 12, 2021                                          (bloomberg.com)

• Russia and China are contesting the US militarily, from the Arctic to the Baltics to the South China Sea. A few weeks ago, the two nations agreed to build a joint research station on the Moon. In an online statement, the China National Space Administration said the base would be open to “all interested countries and international partners”. But if you look at recent Russian and Chinese space operations, they have a distinctly military bent. And the idea of general political and military cooperation between the two is gaining speed, from massive war games on the Siberian border to warship deployments in the eastern Mediterranean and the North Atlantic.

• Washington needs to understand the strategic approach being taken by both of these US rivals in space. The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the lesser-known Secure World Foundation have recently released reports highlighting a cluster of Russian activities that have caught the attention of the US intelligence community. These include significant antisatellite missile tests throughout 2020; flights of Russian spacecraft very near US spy satellites; tests of projectile launches in space; and fraying ties with the US in civilian and scientific space cooperation.

• As the supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, this article’s writer, James Stavridis, spent a good deal of time with the then-Russian ambassador to the alliance, Dmitry Rogozin. Rogozin went on to serve as deputy prime minister in charge of all Russian defense and space industries. Since 2018, Rogozin has been the head of Roscosmos, the equivalent of NASA. Given his strong defense background, Rogozin brings a military thrust to the Russian space program.

• Ten years ago, Rogozin told Stavridis that Russia’s military future was in space. In 2014, Rogozin mocked the US space program on Twitter as needing a trampoline to bring astronauts to the International Space Station. After a successful commercial launch by SpaceX in 2020, Elon Musk tweeted back, “The trampoline is working.”

• China doesn’t have the decades-long history that Russia has in the space domain, but the Chinese are accelerating rapidly. China had landed a lunar module on the Moon, returning soil samples. It launched a Mars probe that is currently orbiting the red planet. And it has plans to build a Moon base, along with Russia. All of this is part of an emerging “space culture” in China.

• Chinese efforts in space have an increasingly military feel to them as well. China has 363 satellites in space, second only to the U.S. (with more than 1,300). The Chinese have been conducting anti-satellite tests for nearly two decades, including missiles and lasers. They have devoted considerable effort to sharpening offensive cybertools that can go after US space assets. The Chinese have also fired more rockets into space than any other country for three years straight.

• As Russia and China come together to operate in the cosmos, their overall military and strategic cooperation will increase as well. The fledgling US Space Force must be part of a US response. America needs a small but elite US Cyber Force working alongside our allies, much as China and Russia intend to do. And Washington needs a coherent plan for private-public cooperation and to prioritize defense dollars for space.

• [Editor’s Note]   The author of this article, retired Admiral James Stavridis, is intent on associating Russia with China’s CCP. And where is he now that he has retired from the US Navy? He is an operating executive with the Carlyle Group, a notorious bastion of the deep state elite trying to stoke a war between the US, China and Russia. China has invited “all interested countries and international partners” to join them in the development of a Moon base. After the deep state stopped utilizing Russian space rockets to bring Americans to the International Space Station in favor of their darling, Elon Musk, why wouldn’t Russia be interested in another Moon program? And didn’t the Russian navy just work with the US Navy to bottle up the Evergreen container ship ‘Ever Given’ in the Suez Canal, which reportedly contained not only trafficked humans but weapons of mass destruction?

What is really going on is a war between the deep state and non-compliant Alliance countries like Russia. Deep state shills like Admiral Stavridis only want to demonize Russia and stir up World War III to give the deep state a path to total control over the planet and the solar system. Unfortunately, Administrator Biden is also a deep state lackey who supports this evil agenda. It is up to the white hats in the US military to excise the deep state trolls from its ranks, completely remove the deep state from power, and set the planet on a course of peace and prosperity – including our expansion into space to stand alongside our space cousins – which the deep state has actively prevented since WWII.

 

          Fmr Admiral James Stavridis

Russia and China are looking hard at how they should allocate defense spending to

       Dmitry Rogozin

contest the U.S. militarily, from the Arctic to the Baltics to the South China Sea. Near the top of both national shopping lists are military operations and assets in space, and the most intriguing aspect of their decision to look to the stars is that they are going to do it together.

Most notably, the two nations agreed a few weeks ago to build a joint research station on the moon. In an online statement, the China National Space Administration said the base would be open to “all interested countries and international partners,” which sounds relatively benign. But if you look at recent Russian and Chinese space operations, they have a distinctly military bent. And the idea of general political and military cooperation between the two is gaining speed, from massive war games on the Siberian border to warship deployments in the eastern Mediterranean and the North Atlantic.

What should the U.S. be doing?

First, Washington needs to clearly understand the strategic approach being taken by both of these rivals, who are now peer competitors, at least in space.

We should begin with Russia, which has had a very long and successful track record in space operations dating back to Soviet times. The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the lesser-known Secure World Foundation have recently released reports highlighting a cluster of Russian activities that have caught the attention of the U.S. intelligence community.

These include significant antisatellite missile tests throughout 2020; so-called close aboard flights of Russian spacecraft very near U.S. spy satellites; tests of projectile launches in space; and fraying ties with the U.S. in civilian and scientific space cooperation. (The two nations have previously worked together closely, especially on the International Space Station.)

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New SPACECOM Strategy Warns US Adversaries

Article by Rachel S. Cohen                                      February 1, 2021                                     (airforcemag.com)

• In August 2019, the US Space Command, or ‘SPACECOM’, was revived after being disbanded for 17 years, integrating its work with the other combatant commands that rely on and defend space assets. During a recent AFA Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event, SPACECOM boss Gen. James H. Dickinson said that the US Space Command must “sustain a warfighting culture and adapt to a dynamic and changing strategic environment,” drawing upon the experience of the other armed forces.

• On February 1st, SPACECOM released a new strategy paper that broadly outlines goals for training, partnerships, and cybersecurity. But in a future with “increasingly capable competitors” and a “long-term security threat” posed by Russia and China, the paper also warns that the United States will hit back if its satellites, radars, and other space systems are endangered.

• As America and its allies expand their space economies and look to permanently return to the Moon, “[the] United States Space Command will always remain ready to prevail against any foreign space-related aggression” reads the strategy paper. “By developing…counter-space capabilities and…military doctrines to extend into space, our [Russian and Chinese] competitors seek to prevent our unfettered access to space and deny our freedom to operate in space.”

• The US military argues it needs to bolster its offense and defense in space to protect the satellites and radars that enable GPS guidance, ATMs, ballistic missile warning, and more. SPACECOM also uses those assets to direct weapons and troops, send information around the world, and collect intelligence—making them targets for those who want to disrupt American military operations.

• Brian Weeden, a director at the Secure World Foundation, says that the 12-page paper, comprised largely of pictures, lacks the detail of previous Pentagon strategy papers. “It reads more like an ad brochure full of chest-thumping assertions than a serious strategic document,” quipped Weeden.

• Weeden recognizes that the military may not be comfortable with publicly discussing developing space operations, and that the fact that there haven’t been any actual space battles, would explain the lack of sophistication for space doctrine relative to the other combat domains.

• Dickinson maintains that job one for SPACECOM is to attract the kind of veteran military talent who can bring various combat experiences to SPACECOM to develop a fully operational combatant command. “That generates combat power almost immediately.”

 

       Gen. James H. Dickinson

U.S. Space Command in its new strategy paper warns of a future with “increasingly capable competitors” and a “long-term security threat” posed by Russia and China, claiming the right of self-defense as America and its allies expand their space economies and look to permanently return to the moon.

The U.S. military argues it needs to bolster its offense and defense in space to protect the satellites and radars that enable GPS guidance, ATMs, ballistic missile warning, and more. SPACECOM also uses those assets to direct weapons and troops, send information around the world, and collect intelligence—making them targets for those who want to disrupt American military operations.

“By developing, testing, and deploying counter-space capabilities and evolving their military doctrines to extend into space, our competitors seek to prevent our unfettered access to space and deny our freedom to operate in space,” reads the paper, dated Feb. 1.

This is the latest document to warn that the United States will hit back if its satellites, radars, and other space systems are endangered. It also broadly outlines goals for training, partnerships, and cybersecurity. SpaceNews first reported on the strategic vision Jan. 28.

“The United States, along with our allies and partners, will champion and promote the responsible, peaceful, and safe use of space,” according to the strategy. “However, should our nation call, United States Space Command will always remain ready to prevail against any foreign space-related aggression.”

                   Brian Weeden

The document echoes earlier blueprints from the Pentagon and the Space Force, the branch of the military that supplies most systems and personnel to SPACECOM for daily operations. But the 12-page paper, comprised largely of pictures, lacks the detail of previous strategies.

“It reads more like an ad brochure full of chest-thumping assertions than a serious strategic document,” Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, said on Twitter.

He suggested the strategy may miss the mark because the military is not yet comfortable with discussing often-classified space operations in a public forum.

“There is something to be said about the lack of sophistication for space doctrine relative to the other domains because we haven’t had any actual combat in space to draw on,” he told Air Force Magazine.

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The Ripple Effects of a Military Space Skirmish

Article by Ramin Skibba and Undark                                July 12, 2020                              (theatlantic.com)

• On April 22, with the successful launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, Iran joined a growing list of nations having weapons and military systems in orbit. In April, Russia tested a missile program designed to destroy satellites, and in March 2019, India launched an anti-satellite weapon. Many more countries now have space programs, including Iran, North Korea, France, Japan, and Israel.

• Two think-tanks, e.g.: the Secure World Foundation in Broomfield, Colorado, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., both released reports this year (see SWF report here; see CSIS report here) pointing to an increase in countries deploying satellite-destroying weaponry and disruptive technologies that could put all peaceful activities in space at risk. Many of these technologies could ratchet up an arms race or spark an actual skirmish in space.

• “What worries us in the international community is that there aren’t necessarily any guardrails for how people are going to start interfering with others’ space systems,” said Daniel Porras, a space security fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.

• Thousands of satellites already circle low-Earth orbit (below an altitude of 1,200 miles) to provide key services such as internet access, GPS signals, long-distance communications, and weather information. More than half of those satellites are from the U.S., and most of the rest are from China and Russia. Any missile that smashes into a satellite would disperse thousands of bits of debris. “If you create debris, it might just as well come back and hit one of your own satellites,” says David Burbach, a national security affairs expert at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. “So I think we’re pretty unlikely to see countries actually use those capabilities.”

• When China conducted an anti-satellite missile test in 2007, it created a massive cloud of space junk that drew international condemnation. India’s engineers tried to limit debris from their recent test by conducting it at a low altitude, so that Earth’s gravity would pull the pieces down and they would burn up on descent. But some pieces were flung up to the International Space Station’s orbit. There were no collisions; as of February, only 15 trackable pieces of debris remained in orbit.

• A number of countries are developing new military technologies for space. France is working on laser beams that could dazzle another country’s satellite, preventing it from taking pictures of classified targets. North Korea is studying how to jam radio frequency signals sent to or from a satellite. And Iran is devising cyberattacks that could interfere with satellite systems. Meanwhile, the big three space heavyweights – the U.S., Russia, and China – are already capable of all three approaches, according to the SWF report.

• The big three have also begun to develop satellites that can be used as surveillance devices or weapons. A satellite could maneuver within miles of a rival’s classified satellite, snap photos of equipment and transmit the pictures down to Earth. Or the satellite could sidle up to another and spray its counterpart’s lenses or cover its solar panels, cutting off power and rendering it useless. Russia may be ahead with this technology. Last fall, Space Force General John “Jay” Raymond accused Russia of deploying a satellite near a U.S. spy satellite, which he called a “potentially threatening behavior.”

• The SWF report notes that an incident or misunderstanding could escalate tensions if it’s perceived as an attack. With the new Space Force, the U.S. Defense Department seeks to “strengthen deterrence” and improve capabilities to “defend our vital assets in space,” says Space Force spokesperson Christina Hoggatt. The U.S. military will focus on making satellites more resilient to attack, however, rather than developing offensive weapons, said Hoggatt.

• Tense regional relationships could be particularly unpredictable. For example, if North Korean leaders found themselves in a standoff with South Korea and the U.S., they might launch and detonate a nuclear weapon in space where the radiation would disable most satellites. The U.N. and other international groups – including SWF and the Outer Space Institute, a global research organization based in British Columbia – are working to avoid such scenarios.

• Existing international laws offer little guidance. While the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 prohibit weapons of mass destruction in space, they don’t explicitly limit other kinds of space weapons, tests, or military space forces. So until non-interference rules involving space weaponry are hammered out, unexpected satellite tests will inevitably fuel speculation and paranoia.

 

On April 22, after several failed attempts, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a successful launch of what it described as a military reconnaissance satellite. That satellite joined a growing list of weapons and military systems in orbit, including those from Russia (which in April tested a missile program designed to destroy satellites) and India (which launched an anti-satellite weapon in March 2019).

Experts like Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation (SWF), a nonpartisan think tank based in Broomfield, Colorado, worry that these developments—all confirmed by the newly rebranded United States Space Force—threaten to lift earthly conflicts to new heights and put all space activities, peaceful and military alike, at risk. Researchers at SWF and at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., both released reports this year on the rapidly evolving state of affairs. The reports suggest that the biggest players in space have upgraded their military abilities, including satellite-destroying weapons and technologies that disrupt spacecraft, by, for instance, blocking data collection or transmission.

Many of these technologies, if deployed, could ratchet up an arms race and even spark a skirmish in space, the SWF and CSIS researchers caution. Blowing up a single satellite scatters debris throughout the atmosphere, said Weeden, co-editor of the SWF report. Such an explosion could hurl projectiles in the paths of other spacecraft and threaten the accessibility of space for everyone.

“Those are absolutely the two best reports to be looking at to get a sense of what’s going on in the space community,” said David Burbach, a national security affairs expert at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, who was not involved in the new research.

Today, Burbach added, the world is very different compared with the Cold War era, when access to space was essentially limited to the United States and the Soviet Union. Many more countries now have space programs, including India, Iran, North Korea, France, Japan, and Israel.

Despite this expansion—and the array of new space weapons—relevant policies and regulatory bodies have remained stagnant. “What worries us in the international community is that there aren’t necessarily any guardrails for how people are going to start interfering with others’ space systems,” said Daniel Porras, a space security fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. “There are no rules of engagement.”

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China In Space: Does the US Contest Or Cooperate?

Article by Theresa Hitchens                           May 04, 2020                            (breakingdefense.com)

• In an April 2020 Brookings Institution Report entitled “Managing China’s Rise In Outer Space” (see Brookings Report here), author Frank Rose asserts that “The United States faces a fundamental dilemma as it attempts to effectively manage China’s rise as a major actor in outer space.” The U.S. must find a balance between countering China’s anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons efforts and cooperating with China to address the key challenges facing the outer space environment, namely orbital debris and the rise of mega constellations.

• With over 120 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance satellites in orbit, China is second only to the U.S. This includes 14 Gaofen satellites, China’s most advanced class of high resolution imagery satellites launched since July 2018. China also operates 34 communication satellites, four of which are dedicated exclusively for the military. China’s BeiDou ‘precision, navigation, and timing’ system (similar to the U.S.’s GPS system) will this year reach its goal of global coverage. The report notes that this will lessen China’s dependence on our GPS system, making it less vulnerable to U.S. interference, especially “during a crisis”.

• In the Brookings Report, Rose, who was Assistant Secretary for Arms Control in the Obama State Department, says that the US must live with the fact that China will be a peer in space, both militarily and in the civil and commercial spheres. While the U.S. needs to deter China’s growing ASAT capabilities, it also must also boost languishing diplomatic relations with Beijing on space issues. Rose accuses Trump of failing to continue the “robust period of dialogue during the Obama administration.” The bilateral US-China dialogue on space security has been largely neglected in the Trump administration,” the report says. The only inroads that Trump has pursued with China have been over the legal status of commercial mining of the Moon and asteroids.

• Rose believes a diplomatic strategy should include: deterrence against Chinese anti-satellite weaponry; reinvigorating bilateral dialogue on space security and civil policies; developing norms of behavior for outer space; and overcoming Congressional limitations on cooperative civil space projects with China.

• A recent study by the Secure World Foundation (see SWF study, “Global Counterspace Capabilities”, here) stated that China’s premier SC-19 mobile-launched ballistic missile can destroy “low earth orbit” satellites up to 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles) in altitude – the altitude of most “observation” satellites.

• Another March study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (see CSIS study, “Space Threat Assessment 2020”, here) says that China has already started training specialized units of the Strategic Space Force in the use of “direct-ascent kinetic” anti-satellite weaponry. The studies found open-source evidence of a variety of Chinese efforts to develop counterspace-related technology from radio-frequency jamming to lasers for blinding satellites to ground-based missiles to on-orbit ‘killer satellite’ techniques.

• [Editor’s Note]  In a a recent ExoArticle (see “The Truth Behind Russia’s Mystery ASAT Launch – ‘Not Operational’” here), director of the ‘Russian Nuclear Forces Project’ and senior research fellow at the ‘United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research’, Pavel Podvig pointed out that the Russian anti-satellite ‘Nudol’ interceptor can target satellites up to 1,240 miles in low earth orbit. Most U.S. spy satellites are in geostationary orbits of about 22,200 miles above the earth. “[I]t’s hard to imagine a military mission in which this capability would be useful,” said Podvig. The Chinese ASAT weapons mentioned here have a range of only about 2,000 kilometers (or 1,240 miles) as well.

Once again however, I fear that all of this hand-wringing over Chinese and Russian ground-to-space ballistic missiles being able to reach our low earth orbit ‘observation’ and GPS satellite constellation is a smokescreen hiding the real space race going on among the respective nation’s secret space programs.

Dr Michael Salla has just published a new book entitled Rise of the Red Dragon: Origins & Threat of China’s Secret Space Program (see here for book info) which looks behind the curtain of China’s secret space program. I reached out to Dr Salla to comment on the concerns and military threats that Frank Rose presents in the foregoing Brookings Institute Report.

“The threat posed by China’s expansion into space is far greater than it simply developing anti-satellite weapons systems to neutralize the US military’s extensive satellite grid,” said Dr Salla. “China has been developing a secret space program with electromagnetic propulsion and weapons systems that have been developed through the acquisition of foreign technologies gained through espionage and corporate theft. Perhaps even more significant has been China’s secretive reverse-engineering programs of off-world technologies. These advanced space technologies are being enhanced through China’s unrestrained adoption of Artificial Intelligence for communications and control systems. China is devoting significant resources into the expansion of its secret space program as part of the asymmetric “Assassin’s Mace” strategy of countering US hegemony on Earth and in space.”

“The long term strategy of China’s ruling Communist Party is to exceed US space capabilities by 2030, and it will exploit the vagaries of international law and space law to advance its hegemonic aspirations. There needs to be full disclosure of the capabilities and technologies all major space powers to prevent a future Space Pearl Harbor as China expands its military presence in space.”

 

WASHINGTON: The US must find a balance between countering China’s antisatellite (ASAT) weapons efforts and cooperating with it to stave off broader risks to the space operational environment, says a new Brookings Institution report.

          Frank Rose

“The United States faces a fundamental dilemma as it attempts to effectively manage China’s rise as a major actor in outer space,” says author Frank Rose,,State Department assistant secretary for arms control under President Barack Obama. “On one hand, China’s development of anti-satellite weapons represents a direct threat to U.S. and allied space systems. On the other hand, it is difficult to see how the United States and the international community will be able to address the key challenges facing the outer space environment — i.e., the growth of orbital debris and the rise of mega constellations — without engaging with China.”

“Managing China’s Rise In Outer Space” says the US must live with the fact that China will be a peer in space, both militarily and in the civil and commercial spheres. For example, the report points out that China is second only to the US in the number of military and commercial remote sensing satellites it operates.

While the US needs to deter China’s growing ASAT capabilities, it also must boost languishing diplomatic relations with Beijing on space issues that are, by necessity and physics, of mutual concern.

Such a strategy should include:
 “Enhancing deterrence and increasing resiliency against Chinese ASAT threats;
 Reinvigorating the U.S.-China bilateral dialogue on space security issues;
 Continuing the U.S.-China Civil Space Dialogue;
 Developing bilateral and multilateral norms of behavior for outer space;
 Identifying ways to cooperate with China on pragmatic civil space projects; and,
 Reviewing current congressional limitations on civil space cooperation with China.”

Rose notes that, while the Trump administration has taken efforts to counter Chinese ASAT capabilities, it has also allowed diplomatic efforts to languish.

“After a robust period of dialogue during the Obama administration, the bilateral U.S.-China dialogue on space security has been largely neglected in the Trump administration,” the paper says.

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