Tag: Robert Zubrin

Why Has NASA Not Sent Anyone to Mars?

Article by Jess Romeo                                            February 10, 2021                                           (daily.jstor.org)

• In 1969, humans first set foot on the Moon. With each step, the entire universe seemed to open up. Where would NASA and its brave astronauts go next? “At the time of the Moon landing, it was generally expected that the United States would quickly go on to Mars,” writes aerospace engineer and founder of the Mars Society Robert Zubrin.

• As Zubrin relates in The New Atlantis: “Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins recalled thinking ‘perhaps I could help [NASA] plan a Mars mission’. Edgar Mitchell, the sixth man on the Moon, remembered feeling that ‘it wasn’t unreasonable to hope’ he’d be assigned to a Mars-bound crew. Gene Cernan, the twelfth and last man on the Moon, recounted with sadness the time that he finally faced the facts: ‘I’m not going to Mars.’”

• In the half-century following Apollo 11, NASA’s human spaceflight program stagnated. After 1972, no astronaut would stray further than 300 miles from Earth.

• People might blame this lack of human spaceflight on waning public support for the endeavor, lack of funding for NASA, or the fickleness of a democratic government during peacetime. But Zubrin is of a different mind. Historically, Zubrin argues, public support played a relatively small role in the space program in the 1960s. Lack of money is no excuse either. NASA actually has significantly more money today (adjusted for inflation) than it did when it first sent astronauts to the moon.

• As for that democratic “fickleness”, Zubrin points out that “many great things have been accomplished by democratic means during times of peace in the United States, including massive public works like the Erie Canal, the Hoover Dam, and the Interstate Highway System.”

• The real problem is what Zubrin calls a “change in mode of operation.” After Apollo 11, NASA lost sight of its clear, driving purpose. Human spaceflight projects became aimless and slow-moving. NASA has spent hundreds of billions of dollars over the past half-century with very little results. George H.W. Bush’s ‘Space Exploration Initiative’ in 1989 quickly collapsed. Barack Obama’s ‘Journey to Mars’ had no specific deadlines to accomplish anything. And despite establishing Space Force, the Trump administration’s ambitions were vague and Mars was never a top priority.

• Nowadays, Earth’s interaction with the Red Planet begins and ends with robots. But with people like Elon Musk vowing to colonize the Moon by 2026, perhaps the dream is closer than it seems.

[Editor’s Note]  The facts given in this article point to the causes for the NASA space program’s stagnation over the past fifty years, but not the underlying reason. The reason is that the deep state elite who presided over the creation of vast and competing secret space programs were incredibly greedy. They wanted to keep all of the advanced extraterrestrial technologies, to which they were exposed through their off-planet exploits, only to themselves. So in the 1950s, they set up the “civilian” NASA under the authority of the military industrial complex and invented a “Moon mission” using outdated rocket technology, while they continued to develop their secret space programs using advanced electromagnetic anti-gravity warp drive propulsion technology. Once the deep state put on their Apollo 11 show in 1969 and gave the world a bone to keep them quiet, they came up with other sinister ways to divert the public’s attention over the decades. Deep state agents used any excuse to discredit any real-world space program through the influence of a complicit media (just as they discredited the UFO phenomenon), paving the way for complicit legislators to give space activities the lowest priority. But don’t be fooled. There are millions of people currently residing on the Moon, Mars, and many other celestial bodies within and outside of our solar system.

 

In 1969, humans first set foot on the Moon. With each step, the entire universe seemed to open up. Where would NASA and its

             Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin

brave astronauts go next? As it turns out, nowhere. In the half-century following Apollo 11, NASA’s human spaceflight program stagnated. Even our closest planetary neighbor, Mars, seems like an impossible destination—but this wasn’t always the case.

“At the time of the Moon landing, it was generally expected that the United States would quickly go on to Mars,” writes aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society and advocate for human exploration of Mars. As Zubrin relates in The New Atlantis: “Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins recalled thinking “
‘perhaps I could help them [NASA] plan’ a Mars mission. Edgar Mitchell, the sixth man on the Moon, remembered feeling that ‘it wasn’t unreasonable to hope’ he’d be assigned to a Mars-bound crew. Gene Cernan, the twelfth and last man on the Moon, recounted with sadness the time that he “finally faced the facts: ‘I’m not going to Mars.’”

                        Michael Collins

After 1972, no astronaut would stray further than 300 miles from Earth.

People might blame this lack of human spaceflight on waning public support for the endeavor, lack of funding for NASA, or the

fickleness of a democratic government during peacetime. Zubrin is of a different mind: “Each of these explanations is intuitively plausible,” he argues, “But […] taken together, they amount to a profound misunderstanding of how democratic peoples can do great things.”

Historically, Zubrin argues, public support played a relatively small role in the space program in the 1960s. “An analysis by historian Roger Launius found that […] lunar exploration in general almost never enjoyed majority support in contemporary polls.” Lack of money is no excuse either, Zubrin adds, as NASA actually has significantly more money today (adjusted for inflation) than it did when it first sent astronauts to the moon.

As for that democratic “fickleness,” Zubrin points out that “many great things have been accomplished by democratic means during times of peace in the United States, including massive public works like the Erie Canal, the Hoover Dam, and the Interstate Highway System.”

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Interstellar Travel and Biosphere Reboots Means There Are a Lot of Aliens in the Galaxy

by Brian Wang         February 22, 2018          (nextbigfuture.com)

• Based upon the average lifespan of a typical galactic civilization, and the notion that civilizations come, go, and reappear within the same star systems, aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin (pictured above) calculates that the number of technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy (ie: at least as advanced as we are) greatly exceeds the 3,500 calculated by Frank Drake in 1961 known as “Drake’s Equation”.

• Among the 400 billion stars comprising the Milky Way galaxy, Zubrin estimates the number of technological civilizations to be 5 million. Also, the nearest civilization is probably about 185 light years away.

 

In 1961, radio astronomer Frank Drake developed a pedagogy for analyzing the question of the frequency of extraterrestrial civilizations. Robert Zubrin shows a couple of significant mistaken assumptions by Drake. Robert Zubrin wrote this for Centauri Dreams.

Drake equation defines a “civilization” as a species possessing interstellar communication capability. This means radiotelescopes. By this definition, civilization did not appear on Earth until the 1930s. Although, Earth does not really have the means to usefully broadcast and had limited means to interpret interstellar radio communications. Also, we may need to look at laser or other forms of interstellar communication.

L is the average lifetime of a technological civilization.
N/L, is the rate at which such civilizations are disappearing from the galaxy.
R∗, the rate of star formation in our galaxy;
fp, the fraction of these stars that have planetary systems;
ne, is the mean number of planets in each system that have environments favorable to life;
fl the fraction of these that actually developed life;
fi the fraction of these that evolved intelligent species; and
fc the fraction of intelligent species that developed sufficient technology for interstellar communication

If we estimate L=50,000 years (ten times recorded history), R∗ = 10 stars per year, fp = 0.5, and each of the other four factors ne, fl, fi, and fc equal to 0.2, we calculate the total number of technological civilizations in our galaxy, N, equals 400.

Four-hundred civilizations in our galaxy may seem like a lot, but scattered among the Milky Way’s 400 billion stars, they would represent a very tiny fraction: just one in a billion to be precise. In our own region of the galaxy, (known) stars occur with a density of about one in every 320 cubic light years. If the calculation in the previous paragraph were correct, it would therefore indicate that the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is likely to be about 4,300 light years away.

The Drake equation is wrong. The equation assumes that life, intelligence, and civilization can only evolve in a given solar system once. This is manifestly untrue. Stars evolve on time scales of billions of years, species over millions of years, and civilizations take mere thousands of years.

Current human civilization could knock itself out with a thermonuclear war, but unless humanity drove itself into complete extinction, there is little doubt that 1,000 years later global civilization would be fully reestablished. An asteroidal impact on the scale of the K-T event that eliminated the dinosaurs might well wipe out humanity completely. But 5 million years after the K-T impact the biosphere had fully recovered and was sporting the early Cenozoic’s promising array of novel mammals, birds, and reptiles.

Similarly, 5 million years after a K-T class event drove humanity and most of the other land species to extinction, the world would be repopulated with new species, including probably many types of advanced mammals descended from current nocturnal or aquatic varieties.
Estimating the Galactic Population

There are 400 billion stars in our galaxy, and about 10 percent of them are good G and K type stars which are not part of multiple stellar systems. Almost all of these probably have planets, and it’s a fair guess that 10 percent of these planetary systems feature a world with an active biosphere, probably half of which have been living and evolving for as long as the Earth. That leaves us with two billion active, well-developed biospheres filled with complex plants and animals, capable of generating technological species on time scales of somewhere between 10 and 40 million years. As a middle value, let’s choose 20 million years as the “regeneration time” tr.

Using average lifespan technological civilization at 50,000 years then there are probably 5 million technological civilizations active in the galaxy right now and the nearest civilization is probably about 185 light years away.

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